Windows Phone Predicted to Overtake Apple’s iOS by 2015

Windows Phone Predicted to Overtake Apple’s iOS by 2015

If there’s one thing analysts love, it’s mobile phones. That may be because the landscape is so competitive, and things change so fast. Regardless what it is, ever since the iPhone came out, it’s been a focus of all tech pundits. Now, since last year, Microsoft truly entered the market with its Windows Phone 7. Unfortunately for them, they haven’t seen much success in the market, remaining at a very low adoption rate of 1.9%. Still, research firm IHS iSuppli is now predicting that Windows Phones will overtake iOS in the smartphone market within 3 years. Crazy prediction, or bold move? Here’s the details.

First, there’s no question that so far, Windows Phone 7 has seen very little success, despite a large marketing effort from Microsoft. Ever since the first version came out, critics have pointed out various flaws in the system, and updates have been slow to come through the various carriers. Worse, it almost seemed like mobile phone stores didn’t even want to sell these phones. With the iPhone and Android taking all the real estate, it was very hard for Microsoft to find a spot on the shelve. But last year they made a very significant move, by partnering with Nokia, the largest cellphone marker in the world. Now, they will be making Windows Phones as well, and that might be enough to propel this system ahead. This is in fact what the research firm is basing it’s predictions on. The very first Nokia phone to hit the US soil running Windows Phone 7, the Lumia 900, was a big hit at CES. That’s why IHS iSuppli thinks this is just the beginning, and that the path for Microsoft and Nokia is wide open. They are predicting a 15% market share by next year.

But there’s several problems with that theory. First, of course Nokia is the largest phone maker, but the main reason is because almost all low end phones, those you typically find in Africa, part of Asia and even many European and South American markets are all using cheap Nokia phones. Those aren’t smartphones, and they won’t be running Windows Phone 7. Nokia smartphones have never been a success in the US, or many other industrial countries. So the power Nokia adds to Windows Phone 7 is not that great. Then, being a success at CES and being a success in the market place are two different things. The fact is people who go in mobile phone stores look for an iPhone or an Android phone, primarily. It’s doubtful that a lot of tech press coverage from CES is going to change that. The idea that suddenly, this one phone will propel Microsoft ahead of the market is fairly dubious.

Overall, anything could happen. The iPhone and iOS could become stale, uninteresting, and we could see a mass of customers switching within a year. But that’s doubtful. Chances are, Nokia won’t bring much to Microsoft, at least not in the US.

Let me know your thoughts please comment!

One Response

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